Forecast 2004
Structural Wood Panels and Engineered Wood
North American structural wood panel (plywood and oriented strand board, or OSB) production is expected to total 40.9 billion square feet (3/8-inch basis) this year, essentially the same as in 2003, according to the latest annual forecast by APA—The Engineered Wood Association.
The outlook is based on the expectation that the new residential construction market will continue to be strong, with housing starts reaching 1.82 million units, down only about 1.5 percent from 2003. New residential construction represents more than half of total panel demand.
Residential construction in the U.S. and Canada combined is forecast to consume 21.2 billion square feet of structural panels, including 15.3 billion feet of OSB and 5.9 billion feet of plywood. While demand for panels in residential construction is expected to be down about 2.8 percent from last year, demand is forecast to rise in each of the industry’s other major domestic markets—remodeling, nonresidential construction, and industrial.
The remodeling market this year is forecast to consume 9.7 billion feet, up 1.8 percent; the nonresidential construction market 3.2 billion feet, up 4.6 percent; and the industrial market 7.1 billion feet, up 3.2 percent. Those increases are based on the expectation that the economy will continue to improve, spurring increased capital spending in the manufacturing sector. Exports also are expected to climb, from 641 million feet in 2003 to 752 million this year.
Among other engineered wood products, the manufacture of glulam timber, wood I-joists, and laminated veneer lumber (LVL) is expected to remain the same as last year or rise just slightly. Engineered wood products of all kinds now command about six percent of the wood framing market, and that share is expected in the long term to continue rising. The number of engineered wood product mills in the U.S. and Canada has nearly doubled since 1989, from 54 to 102 last year.
Complete forecast data are contained in APA’s Regional Production and Market Outlook for Structural Panels and Engineered Wood Products, 2004-2009 (Economics Report E70). The annual forecast report contains economic forecast assumptions, market segment analysis and demand data, historical production and capacity data by product category, regional production statistics, export and import figures, and other information. The full report is available for $175 as a PDF file from the Publications section of this web site.
